Across the country, public school enrollment has failed to rebound to pre-pandemic levels — and data suggests the decline is far from over. According to projections from the National Center for Education Statistics, public K-12 enrollment peaked at 50.8 million students in autumn 2019, but is expected to fall by nearly 4 million students to 46.9 million by 2031, a 7.6% nationwide drop. The steepest enrollment losses are in elementary and middle grades, with districts in the Northeast, West and Rust Belt most affected. When public school enrollment fell by 3% in 2020, it was the largest single-year decline since World War II.
